This weekend was disappointing on a number of fronts. Not only is my bracket in shambles (like most everyone else), but I gained a pound even though I should have been neutral. Is my formula wrong? Can all the analysis and understanding be wrong? This madness means it’s time for a closer look.
MoJo Week 11
I’m on a path of gradual weight loss, a continuation from a surprising 2017 realization about my relationship with food and it’s impact on my physical and emotional well-being. If my theory holds, a lifestyle change of eating meals made with real/whole ingredients while balancing exercise with “unhealthy” snacks & drinks will slowly drop the pounds, keep them off, and show improved performance all around. The Monday journal (MoJo) holds me accountable.
March madness is just that; madness. What does is say about statistics and seeding when 50% of the #1 and #2 seeds are out after the first two rounds, and only 7 of the top 16 seeded teams made it to the sweet 16? How could the experts be so wrong? Could it be they are looking at the wrong data? Or is it that the data only helps us determine the probability of a team winning and there’s always a chance the underdog will come out on top in that one instance, that one game.
My Gain is a Loss
I stepped on the scale Sunday with hopes of being where I was last week. After all, my formula and method has been accurate at predicting my weight loss or gain for the last 10 weeks; why should this week be any different. I ate 19 real ingredient meals and my “fun” factor, while negative, was mostly offset by exercise. Taken together, I should have stayed the same weight-wise. How did I gain a pound?
Like any great team that makes it into the tournament, my formula, my method of play, has been working all season. I know what I have to do, and if I execute, I win. I don’t have to count calories, starve myself or go on some high intensity workout program that I know I’ll not be able to hit. But what if you execute, you follow your plan, and you still lose the game to a team you expected to beat?
A Closer Look
I hit 90% on the real ingredient meal measure last week. I know that I can hit 85% and still be in a stable weight area. I won’t lose weight if its lower than 85%, but I should still be OK.
What about the “fun” and exercise measures. I had a net score of -2; two more “fun” counts than the 3 exercise activities. Combined, these all should result in a neutral weight for the week. Is it possible there are other contributing factors that, if they converge, can push me into a weight gain position even when I think I should stay even?
Post Game Analysis
Looking back, the week was filled with more stress than usual and less sleep. I also spent a full day driving over 400 miles to some business meetings. I averaged less than 6 hours sleep, and my exercise was not as high intensity. I opted for more walking than running last week. I think, when taken as a whole, these can have a powerful negative influence that can push me off track, even when I execute to my plan.
Am I going to change my formula or focus based on this past week? Luckily, my tournament isn’t a one and done. I get to learn from it. I don’t think this week’s result forces me to start tracking other variables. As I said from the outset, my method needs to be simple for it to work for me. I’ll use this past week as a data point and consider more sleep or robust exercise when I’m in for a tough work week. I also may target 100% on the real ingredient measure when I have tough weeks. But at this point, I still think I’m on to a great method for a positive lifestyle change. After all, my pick on winning the tournament is still in the mix.